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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Nevada Lieutenant Governor forecast

Sandra Jauregui vs Stavros Anthony, with Stavros Anthony running again. The model has Jauregui ahead by 3.5 points, with a 71 percent chance of winning.

Lean DModel D +3.5Polls D +3.8Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

17 counties · 2 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +4.1
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +11.8
Blend of every legD +7.1
With incumbency and primary unityD +3.8
With polls, 17% weightD +3.5

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +11.5 and R +4.5.

Polls of the race

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedJaureguiAnthonyMargin
Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)708 LV2026-09-264138D +3.0