2026 forecast
New York Attorney General forecast
Letitia James vs Saritha Komatireddy, with Letitia James running again. The model has James ahead by 20.2 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
62 counties · 19 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +15.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +26.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +19.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +22.1 |
| With polls, 24% weight | D +20.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +27.3 and D +13.1.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | James | Komatireddy | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena Research Institute | 1,144 LV | 2026-09-17 | 52 | 39 | D +13.0 |
| Siena Research Institute | 811 LV | 2026-08-06 | 54 | 36 | D +18.0 |