2026 forecast
Nevada Treasurer forecast
Tya Mathis-Coleman vs Drew Johnson, an open seat. The model has Mathis-Coleman ahead by 7.8 points, with a 89 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
17 counties · 2 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +4.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +7.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.7 |
| With polls, 17% weight | D +7.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.8 and R +0.3.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mathis-Coleman | Johnson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse) | 708 LV | 2026-09-26 | 40 | 39 | D +1.0 |