2026 forecast
Vermont Lieutenant Governor forecast
Molly Gray vs John Rodgers, with John Rodgers running again. The model has Gray ahead by 6.9 points, with a 86 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
14 counties · 7 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +9.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +33.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +3.4 |
| With polls, 35% weight | D +6.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.0 and R +1.2.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Gray | Rodgers | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll) | 835 LV | 2026-09-21 | 54 | 35 | D +19.0 |
| Braun Research for Vermont Public (dir. Rich Clark) | 817 unspecified (all respondents) | 2026-09-21 | 42.8 | 34.8 | D +8.0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll) | 887 LV | 2026-06-23 | 45 | 29 | D +16.0 |