2026 forecast
Arizona Corporation Commission forecast
Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill vs Kevin Thompson and Ralph Heap, with Kevin Thompson; Nick Myers running again. The model has Hill ahead by 9.7 points, with a 93 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
15 counties · 5 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.8 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +9.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.9 and D +1.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hill | Heap | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||