2026 forecast
Arizona Attorney General forecast
Kris Mayes vs Warren Petersen, with Kris Mayes running again. The model has Mayes ahead by 10.7 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
15 counties · 5 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +13.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +16.6 |
| With polls, 65% weight | D +10.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.4 and D +4.1.
Polls of the race
8 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mayes | Petersen | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-10-08 | 51.5 | 36.5 | D +15.0 |
| Equis Research | 1,214 RV | 2026-09-09 | 45 | 45 | R +0.0 |
| NextGen Polling | 1,627 RV | 2026-08-19 | 37 | 34 | D +3.0 |
| HighGround, Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 48 | 40 | D +8.0 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 41 | 38 | D +3.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | 2026-08-13 | 44 | 38 | D +6.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) for AARP | 913 LV | 2026-07-28 | 48 | 43 | D +5.0 |