SearchThe Weighting Room
25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
Fieldwork and modeling by The Public Sentiment Institute

Every race.
Every county.
On point.

Polling averages, county level forecasts and live election results for the 2026 midterms, built on TPSI's own surveys and a transparent public poll feed.

Open the forecastPolling averagesForecast updated Oct 9
Trump job approval
40.3%
Net -18.0 · daily average, 650 polls
Generic ballot
D +8.2
54.1 D · 45.9 R two party · 312 polls
Chance of control, 10,000 simulations
88%Senate
95%House
92%Governors
Chance Democrats control each; Senate counts Nebraska's Osborn with the Democrats
2026 forecast

The map, county by county

Hover any state for the model margin, click it to open the county simulation. Ratings are set by margin: under 2 toss up, 2 to 6 lean, 6 to 12 likely, 12 and over safe.

Alaska Senate, Toss upAlabama Senate, Safe RArkansas Senate, Safe RArizonaCaliforniaColorado Senate, Safe DConnecticutDistrict of ColumbiaDelaware Senate, Safe DFlorida Senate, Lean RGeorgia Senate, Likely DHawaiiIowa Senate, Toss upIdaho Senate, Safe RIllinois Senate, Safe DIndianaKansas Senate, Toss upKentucky Senate, Safe RLouisiana Senate, Likely RMassachusetts Senate, Safe DMarylandMaine Senate, Lean DMichigan Senate, Lean DMinnesota Senate, Likely DMissouriMississippi Senate, Lean RMontana Senate, Safe RNorth Carolina Senate, Likely DNorth DakotaNebraska Senate, Lean INew Hampshire Senate, Likely DNew Jersey Senate, Safe DNew Mexico Senate, Safe DNevadaNew YorkOhio Senate special, Lean DOklahoma Senate, Safe ROregon Senate, Safe DPennsylvaniaRhode Island Senate, Safe DSouth Carolina Senate, Toss upSouth Dakota Senate, Safe RTennessee Senate, Safe RTexas Senate, Lean DUtahVirginia Senate, Safe DVermontWashingtonWisconsinWest Virginia Senate, Safe RWyoming Senate, Safe RAKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo race

Senate seats

2,000 sims
53.4 Dmean seats · D control 88%46.6 R
DEM SEATS, SHARE OF SIMULATIONS46 D seats: 0.2%4647 D seats: 0.5%48 D seats: 1.7%49 D seats: 3.4%4950 D seats: 5.8%51 D seats: 9.4%52 D seats: 12.7%5253 D seats: 15.7%54 D seats: 16.2%55 D seats: 14.3%5556 D seats: 10.6%57 D seats: 6.0%58 D seats: 2.4%5859 D seats: 0.9%60 D seats: 0.2%

Closest races

model margin
SCAnnie Andrews vs Darline GrahamSenateR +0.8Graham
NEDan Osborn vs Pete RickettsSenateI +1.2Osborn
IAJosh Turek vs Ashley HinsonSenate, open seatD +1.3Turek
KSAdam Hamilton vs Roger MarshallSenateD +1.4Hamilton
AKMary Peltola vs Dan S. SullivanSenateD +1.5Peltola
TXJames Talarico vs Ken PaxtonSenateD +2.7Talarico
FLAngie Nixon vs Ashley MoodySenateR +3.1Moody
Senate Mode

Inside the simulation

Every county reconstructed by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times. These are the county margins from the current build.

South Carolina Senate

Toss up46 counties
D +40R +40Colors scale to margin, hover for the simulated vote
Model margin
Graham +0.8
Simulated statewide vote
Annie Andrews46.9%
Darline Graham47.6%
Kasie Whitener5.5%
Public polling average
Andrews +0.1
Election Day polling average, LOWESS where a race has 8 or more polls
Biggest counties
GreenvilleR +4.5
CharlestonD +25.6
HorryR +25.7
RichlandD +52.3
SpartanburgR +16.5
Open the race page
Polling averages

Trends that see past the noise

Every public poll, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade. Race pages add robust LOWESS trend lines at three spans and an Election Day projection.

All averages

Trump job approval

net -18.0
-35-30-25-20-15-10-50+5FebAprJunAugnet -18.0
PollsterDatesSampleAppDisNet
OnPoint average40.358.3-18.0
Rasmussen Reports9/241,500 LV4456-12
Emerson9/221,000 LV3958-19
Economist/YouGov9/21982 LV3563-28
Echelon Insights9/211,002 LV3664-28

Generic congressional ballot

D +8.2
R+50D+5D+10D+15FebAprJunAugD +8.2
PollsterDatesSampleDemGOPMargin
OnPoint average51.443.2D +8.2
Emerson9/221,000 LV5342D +11
Echelon Insights9/211,002 LV5143D +8
Economist/YouGov9/21975 LV5238D +14
Morning Consult9/20LV5043D +7
Results desk

Live returns, called by the desk

Election night ready

Florida Governor, GOP primary

Aug 18
Byron Donalds…
James Fishback…
Jay Collins…
Loading the final count

Oklahoma Governor, GOP runoff

Aug 25
Gentner Drummond…
Mike Mazzei…
Loading the final count
Next election night
Nov 3
·days
·hrs
·min
County maps, call log, live model updates and the stream from the TPSI situation room.
Open the live desk
From TPSI

Latest releases and model notes

All releases
National · TPSI poll

The 2026 national poll: ballot, approval and the mood

Registered and likely voters, weighted with the DSMeridian likely voter model.

Topline, crosstabs, methodology
South Carolina Senate

Graham leads Andrews by 0.8 in the model

Senate Mode county model, 10,000 simulated elections.

Oct 9 · Forecast note
Kansas Governor

Masterson leads Holscher by 1.3 in the model

The closest governor's race in the model, R +1.3.

Oct 9 · Forecast note
Methods

How OnPoint averages polls: robust LOWESS at three spans

Every poll is one observation at its field midpoint.

Sep 28 · Methodology
Commission fieldwork

Statewide, district or national polling with full crosstabs.

TPSI runs dual panel surveys weighted with the DSMeridian likely voter model. Campaigns, PACs and newsrooms get a topline in days, not weeks.