SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
Fieldwork and modeling by On Point Polling

Every race.
Every county.
On point.

Polling averages, county level forecasts and live election results for the 2026 midterms, built on On Point Polling's own surveys and a transparent public poll feed.

Open the forecastPolling averagesForecast updated Oct 19
Trump job approval
40.3%
Net -18.0 · daily average, 674 polls
Generic ballot
D +7.6
53.8 D · 46.2 R two party · 328 polls
Chance of control, 2,000 simulations
82%Senate
91%House
91%Governors
Chance Democrats control each; Senate counts Nebraska's Osborn with the Democrats
2026 forecast

The map, county by county

Hover any state for the model margin, click it to open the county simulation. Ratings are set by margin: under 2 toss up, 2 to 6 lean, 6 to 12 likely, 12 and over safe.

Alaska Senate, Toss upAlabama Senate, Safe RArkansas Senate, Safe RArizonaCaliforniaColorado Senate, Safe DConnecticutDistrict of ColumbiaDelaware Senate, Safe DFlorida Senate, Likely RGeorgia Senate, Likely DHawaiiIowa Senate, Toss upIdaho Senate, Safe RIllinois Senate, Safe DIndianaKansas Senate, Toss upKentucky Senate, Safe RLouisiana Senate, Likely RMassachusetts Senate, Safe DMarylandMaine Senate, Lean DMichigan Senate, Lean DMinnesota Senate, Likely DMissouriMississippi Senate, Lean RMontana Senate, Safe RNorth Carolina Senate, Likely DNorth DakotaNebraska Senate, Lean INew Hampshire Senate, Likely DNew Jersey Senate, Safe DNew Mexico Senate, Safe DNevadaNew YorkOhio Senate special, Lean DOklahoma Senate, Safe ROregon Senate, Safe DPennsylvaniaRhode Island Senate, Safe DSouth Carolina Senate, Toss upSouth Dakota Senate, Likely RTennessee Senate, Safe RTexas Senate, Lean DUtahVirginia Senate, Safe DVermontWashingtonWisconsinWest Virginia Senate, Safe RWyoming Senate, Safe RAKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo race

Senate seats

2,000 sims
53.2 Dmean seats · D control 82%46.8 R
DEM SEATS, SHARE OF SIMULATIONS45 D seats: 0.2%4546 D seats: 0.7%47 D seats: 1.5%48 D seats: 3.1%4849 D seats: 5.2%50 D seats: 7.4%51 D seats: 9.4%5152 D seats: 11.8%53 D seats: 13.6%54 D seats: 13.6%5455 D seats: 12.1%56 D seats: 9.4%57 D seats: 6.1%5758 D seats: 3.3%59 D seats: 1.6%60 D seats: 0.6%6061 D seats: 0.2%

Closest races

model margin
KSAdam Hamilton vs Roger MarshallSenateR +1.3Marshall
IAJosh Turek vs Ashley HinsonSenate, open seatD +1.4Turek
AKMary Peltola vs Dan S. SullivanSenateD +1.4Peltola
SCAnnie Andrews vs Darline GrahamSenateD +1.5Andrews
TXJames Talarico vs Ken PaxtonSenateD +2.0Talarico
METroy Jackson vs Susan CollinsSenateD +2.5Jackson
NEDan Osborn vs Pete RickettsSenateI +3.4Osborn
Senate Mode

Inside the simulation

Every county reconstructed by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times. These are the county margins from the current build.

Kansas Senate

Toss up105 counties
D +40R +40Colors scale to margin, hover for the simulated vote
Model margin
Marshall +1.3
Simulated statewide vote
Adam Hamilton48.0%
Roger Marshall49.3%
David Graham2.6%
Public polling average
Marshall +0.5
Election Day polling average, LOWESS where a race has 8 or more polls
Biggest counties
JohnsonD +24.6
SedgwickR +4.0
ShawneeD +14.2
DouglasD +53.7
WyandotteD +47.0
Open the race page
Polling averages

Trends that see past the noise

Every public poll, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade. Race pages add robust LOWESS trend lines at three spans and an Election Day projection.

All averages

Trump job approval

net -18.0
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50+5FebAprJunAugOctnet -18.0
PollsterDatesSampleAppDisNet
On Point average40.358.3-18.0
Economist/YouGov10/121,548 A3462-28
Morning Consult10/112,204 RV4256-14
NewsNation10/9974 LV3860-22
Rasmussen Reports10/81,500 LV4158-17

Generic congressional ballot

D +7.6
R+50D+5D+10D+15FebAprJunAugOctD +7.6
PollsterDatesSampleDemGOPMargin
On Point average51.644.0D +7.6
NewsNation10/9974 LV4942D +7
Financial Times10/62,275 LV5244D +8
The Honest Poll10/6LV5341D +12
Economist/YouGov10/5LV5140D +11
Results desk

Live returns, called by the desk

Election night ready

Florida Governor, GOP primary

Aug 18
Byron Donalds…
James Fishback…
Jay Collins…
Loading the final count

Oklahoma Governor, GOP runoff

Aug 25
Gentner Drummond…
Mike Mazzei…
Loading the final count
Next election night
Nov 3
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County maps, call log, live model updates and the stream from the On Point Polling situation room.
Open the live desk
From On Point Polling

Latest releases and model notes

All releases
On Point Polling · Texas

Texas poll: Talarico +5.8 over Paxton as Abbott holds on, +2.5

661 Texas voters, October 17 to 18, with crossover, age, regions and how Texans plan to vote.

Oct 18 · Poll release
Kansas Senate

Marshall leads Hamilton by 1.3 in the model

Senate Mode county model, 2,000 simulated elections.

Oct 19 · Forecast note
Nebraska Governor

Pillen leads Walz by 0.8 in the model

The closest governor's race in the model, R +0.8.

Oct 19 · Forecast note
Methods

How On Point averages polls: robust LOWESS at three spans

Every poll is one observation at its field midpoint.

Sep 28 · Methodology
Commission fieldwork

Statewide, district or national polling with full crosstabs.

On Point Polling runs dual panel surveys weighted with the DSMeridian likely voter model. Campaigns, PACs and newsrooms get a topline in days, not weeks.