2026 forecast
Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor forecast
Sabina Matos vs John Loughlin, with Sabina Matos running again. The model has Matos ahead by 12.3 points, with a 99 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
5 counties · 4 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +27.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +33.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +30.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +33.3 |
| With polls, 65% weight | D +12.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.6 and D +5.9.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Matos | Loughlin | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for WPRI | 800 LV | 2026-10-11 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| Emerson College/WPRI | 800 LV | 2026-10-11 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 598 LV | 2026-09-21 | 48 | 44 | D +4.0 |