2026 forecast
Texas Lieutenant Governor forecast
Vikki Goodwin vs Dan Patrick, with Dan Patrick running again. The model has Patrick ahead by 4.0 points, with a 81 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
254 counties ยท 23 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +1.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +5.9 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +4.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +1.8 and R +9.8.
Polls of the race
13 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Goodwin | Patrick | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 46.2 | 53.8 | R +7.6 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 49 | 46 | D +3.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 49 | 46 | D +3.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 44 | 49 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 44 | 47 | R +3.0 |
| Texas Southern University, Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 41 | 47 | R +6.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 41 | 47 | R +6.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 42 | R +7.0 |
| Texas A&M Bush School / ReconMR (Texas Pulse) | 619 LV | 2026-07-30 | 48 | 46 | D +2.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 2026-07-30 | 39 | 46 | R +7.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project (YouGov) | 1,200 RV | 2026-06-12 | 36 | 43 | R +7.0 |
| Texas A&M / ReconMR | 807 LV | 2026-06-04 | 44 | 49 | R +5.0 |