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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

New York State Comptroller forecast

Tom DiNapoli vs Joseph Hernandez, with Tom DiNapoli running again. The model has DiNapoli ahead by 22.2 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +22.2Polls D +24.2Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

62 counties · 21 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +15.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +26.8
Blend of every legD +19.1
With incumbency and primary unityD +22.1
With polls, 24% weightD +22.2

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +29.3 and D +15.1.

Polls of the race

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedDiNapoliHernandezMargin
Siena College1,144 LV2026-09-175633D +23.0
Siena College811 LV2026-08-065532D +23.0