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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Nevada Secretary Of State forecast

Cisco Aguilar vs Jim Marchant, with Cisco Aguilar running again. The model has Aguilar ahead by 9.7 points, with a 94 percent chance of winning.

Likely DModel D +9.7Polls D +8.2Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

17 counties · 2 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +4.1
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +12.5
Blend of every legD +7.3
With incumbency and primary unityD +10.7
With polls, 17% weightD +9.7

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.8 and D +1.7.

Polls of the race

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedAguilarMarchantMargin
Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)708 LV2026-09-264437D +7.0