2026 forecast
South Carolina Attorney General forecast
Richard Hricik vs David Stumbo, an open seat. The model has Stumbo ahead by 14.8 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
46 counties · 12 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +2.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +40.7 |
| Blend of every leg | R +15.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +15.0 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +14.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +5.6 and R +24.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hricik | Stumbo | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||