2026 forecast
Alaska Senate forecast
Mary Peltola vs Dan S. Sullivan. The model has Peltola ahead by 1.5 points, winning 61 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
30 boroughsD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +7.9 and R +4.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +0.9 | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 3d | D +2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | 10d | R +0.7 |
| New York Times/Siena | 504 LV | 12d | D +6.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 758 LV | 12d | D +1.1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,079 LV | 19d | R +0.9 |
| co/efficient (R) | 799 LV | 26d | D +1.1 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,188 LV | 29d | R +1.7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,352 LV | 31d | D +3.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 800 LV | 32d | D +5.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,495 LV | 51d | D +1.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,371 LV | 69d | D +1.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 578 LV | 70d | D +2.4 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 593 LV | 106d | R +2.8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,393 LV | 128d | D +2.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 LV | 149d | D +1.3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,946 LV | 177d | D +3.3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,590 LV | 205d | D +2.5 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 611 RV | 269d | D +1.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,988 LV | 275d | D +1.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 823 LV | 355d | R +1.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,708 LV | 363d | D +1.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,623 LV | 438d | R +5.9 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 678 LV | 443d | R +3.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,261 LV | 1267d | D +2.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Peltola | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 45.1 | 49.1 |
| Women | 51% | 52.0 | 42.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 17% | 49.8 | 45.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 26% | 48.7 | 46.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 46.3 | 48.0 |
| 65+ | 25% | 50.8 | 43.9 |
| RaceWhite | 70% | 39.5 | 54.7 |
| Black | 3% | 81.6 | 15.3 |
| Latino | 5% | 59.2 | 36.1 |
| Asian and other | 22% | 70.4 | 25.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 32.9 | 60.7 |
| White women | 37% | 45.4 | 49.2 |
| Black men | 2% | 77.9 | 18.7 |
| Black women | 2% | 85.3 | 12.0 |
| Latino men | 3% | 55.4 | 39.5 |
| Latino women | 3% | 63.4 | 32.1 |
| All other races | 22% | 70.4 | 25.1 |