2026 forecast
Alabama Associate Justice Of The Supreme Court, Place 8 forecast
AshLeigh Dunham vs Greg Shaw, with Greg Shaw running again. The model has Shaw ahead by 30.7 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
67 counties · 11 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +49.6 |
| Blend of every leg | R +28.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +31.0 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +30.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +21.9 and R +39.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Dunham | Shaw | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||