2026 forecast
Arizona Superintendent Of Public Instruction forecast
Teresa Leyba Ruiz vs Kimberly Yee, an open seat. The model has Ruiz ahead by 9.8 points, with a 95 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
15 counties · 5 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +13.2 |
| With polls, 24% weight | D +9.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.5 and D +2.2.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ruiz | Yee | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 42 | 41 | D +1.0 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 42 | 45 | R +3.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 38 | 42 | R +4.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | 2026-08-13 | 37 | 40 | R +3.0 |