2026 forecast
Iowa Secretary Of State forecast
Ryan Peterman vs Paul Pate, with Paul Pate running again. The model has Peterman ahead by 2.3 points, with a 65 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
99 counties · 13 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +10.3 and R +5.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Peterman | Pate | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||