2026 forecast
Kansas Secretary Of State forecast
Jennifer Day vs Pat Proctor, an open seat. The model has Proctor ahead by 0.7 points, with a 54 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
105 counties · 6 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +1.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +0.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +0.4 |
| With polls, 7% weight | R +0.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +7.9 and R +9.4.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Day | Proctor | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) for Jennifer Day campaign (D) | 542 RV | 2026-09-01 | 37 | 39 | R +2.0 |