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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

New Mexico Treasurer forecast

Laura Montoya vs Jim Ellison, with Laura Montoya running again. The model has Montoya ahead by 24.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +24.3Polls D +10.8Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

33 counties · 17 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorD +22.1
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +23.6
Blend of every legD +22.7
With incumbency and primary unityD +25.6
With polls, 8% weightD +24.3

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +32.7 and D +15.8.

Polls of the race

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedMontoyaEllisonMargin
Research & Polling Inc. for Albuquerque Journal516 LV2026-08-284637D +9.0