Move the voters, move the map

Each Senate and governor race is built on the forecast's own simulated electorate, the same voters behind the estimated exit poll on its race page: how big each group is and how it splits. Turnout propensity is each kind of voter's modeled chance of voting, 80% or more for high propensity, and a 2024 Trump or Harris voter is placed in each kind of voter by how On Point Polling respondents like them recalled their 2024 vote. A vote margin slider moves that group's margin by the points you set, and a turnout slider grows or shrinks its share of the electorate. The race's margin moves by exactly what that does to the total, and its chance to win moves along the forecast's own range of outcomes, so a race with little polling moves more than a heavily polled one would on the same shift. House districts have no published electorate of their own, so each starts from its state's and is tilted toward the district's partisanship: a deep blue city seat counts more Democrats and more Black voters, a rural seat more white voters without a degree. Chamber odds move the forecast's full range of seat outcomes by the change in expected seats. With every slider at zero, every number is the published forecast. Forecast methodology.