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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Michigan University Of Michigan Board Of Regents forecast

Paul Brown and Amir Makled vs Lena Epstein and Michael Schostak, an open seat. The model has Makled ahead by 14.2 points, with a 99 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +14.2Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

83 counties · 21 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorD +10.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +22.0
Blend of every legD +14.9
With incumbency and primary unityD +14.9
With polls, none in the raceD +14.2

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +21.8 and D +6.5.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedMakledSchostakMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.