2026 forecast
Ohio Attorney General forecast
John Kulewicz vs Keith Faber, an open seat. The model has Kulewicz ahead by 2.2 points, with a 65 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
88 counties · 11 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +4.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.4 |
| With polls, 6% weight | D +2.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.5 and R +5.0.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kulewicz | Faber | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) for Kulewicz campaign | 600 LV | 2026-08-04 | 36 | 32 | D +4.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) for Kulewicz campaign | 600 LV | 2026-06-04 | 34 | 34 | R +0.0 |