2026 forecast
South Dakota Auditor forecast
Tom Cool vs Catherine Barranco, an open seat. The model has Barranco ahead by 10.9 points, with a 92 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
66 counties · 9 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +10.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +19.5 |
| Blend of every leg | R +11.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +11.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +10.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +0.8 and R +21.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Cool | Barranco | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||