2026 forecast

Texas Comptroller Of Public Accounts forecast

Sarah Eckhardt vs Don Huffines, with Don Huffines running again. The model has Huffines ahead by 4.8 points, with a 86 percent chance of winning.

Lean RModel R +4.8Polls R +6.6Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

254 counties · 22 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	R +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +0.6
Blend of every leg	D +1.0
With incumbency and primary unity	R +2.0
With polls, 65% weight	R +4.8

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +1.0 and R +10.6.

Polls of the race

8 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Eckhardt	Huffines	Margin
ActiVote	400 LV	2026-10-17	44	56	R +12.0
University of Houston Hobby School	2,000 LV	2026-10-14	40	47	R +7.0
UT/Texas Politics Project	861 LV	2026-10-05	46	47	R +1.0
Texas Southern University	1,800 LV	2026-09-19	39	47	R +8.0
Texas Public Opinion Research	1,000 LV	2026-08-24	41	43	R +2.0
UT/Texas Politics Project	1,200 RV	2026-08-13	34	40	R +6.0
Texas Southern University	1,200 LV	2026-07-30	39	46	R +7.0
UT/YouGov	1,200 RV	2026-06-12	34	40	R +6.0

Model margin

Huffines +4.8

Chance of winning

Sarah Eckhardt14%

Don Huffines86%

Projected vote

Sarah Eckhardt45.4%

Don Huffines50.2%

V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza, Shehla Faizi4.5%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202243.9%

201847.1%

201439.1%

Other Texas statewide races

Agriculture commissionerR +2.1

Attorney generalR +1.1

Commissioner of the General Land OfficeR +4.2

Lieutenant governorR +4.0

Railroad commissionerR +0.6

Chief Justice, Supreme CourtR +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3D +0.9

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4R +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9D +1.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8R +2.0

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Texas's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.