2026 forecast
Connecticut Attorney General forecast
William Tong vs John Bolton, with William Tong running again. The model has Tong ahead by 22.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
8 counties · 6 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +15.5 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +18.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +22.1 |
| With polls, 13% weight | D +22.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +30.7 and D +14.4.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Tong | Bolton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 540 LV | 2026-09-21 | 57 | 30 | D +27.0 |