2026 forecast
Idaho Attorney General forecast
Lori Hickman vs Raúl Labrador, with Raúl Labrador running again. The model has Labrador ahead by 26.7 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
44 counties · 4 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +28.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +20.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +24.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +27.4 |
| With polls, 6% weight | R +26.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +18.9 and R +34.6.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hickman | Labrador | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Stegner for Idaho | 1,213 LV | 2026-07-30 | 31 | 49 | R +18.0 |