2026 forecast
Illinois Comptroller forecast
Margaret Croke vs Bryan Drew, an open seat. The model has Croke ahead by 24.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
102 counties · 16 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +26.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +18.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +24.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +24.9 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +24.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +33.3 and D +15.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Croke | Drew | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||