2026 forecast
Georgia Agriculture Commissioner forecast
Katherine Juhan-Arnold vs Tyler Harper, with Tyler Harper running again. The model has Juhan-Arnold ahead by 2.8 points, with a 68 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
159 counties ยท 30 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +5.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.8 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +10.1 and R +4.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Juhan-Arnold | Harper | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||