2026 forecast
Texas Agriculture Commissioner forecast
Clayton Tucker vs Nate Sheets, an open seat. The model has Sheets ahead by 2.1 points, with a 68 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
254 counties ยท 24 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +1.0 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +2.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.7 and R +7.9.
Polls of the race
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Tucker | Sheets | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 49.7 | 50.3 | R +0.6 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 40 | 46 | R +6.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 41 | 47 | R +6.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 44 | 46 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 39 | 45 | R +6.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 40 | 44 | R +4.0 |