SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Nebraska Treasurer forecast

Daniel Ebers vs Joey Spellerberg, with Joey Spellerberg running again. The model has Spellerberg ahead by 11.7 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.

Likely RModel R +11.7Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

93 counties · 3 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorR +1.4
Down ballot history, moved to 2026R +26.7
Blend of every legR +9.0
With incumbency and primary unityR +12.0
With polls, none in the raceR +11.7

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +4.1 and R +19.3.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedEbersSpellerbergMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.