2026 forecast
Iowa Agriculture Commissioner forecast
Chris Jones vs Mike Naig, with Mike Naig running again. The model has Jones ahead by 1.3 points, with a 59 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
99 counties · 12 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.4 |
| With polls, 16% weight | D +1.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +8.9 and R +6.3.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Jones | Naig | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | 500 LV | 2026-09-11 | 36 | 43 | R +7.0 |
| Change Research for Chris Jones campaign (D) | 1,071 LV | 2026-08-01 | 40 | 42 | R +2.0 |