2026 forecast
South Carolina Senate forecast
Annie Andrews vs Darline Graham. The model has Graham ahead by 2.5 points, winning 68 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
46 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.4 and R +10.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +1.5 | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 837 LV | 5d | R +4.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 14d | D +0.7 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,087 LV | 18d | R +0.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,006 LV | 29d | R +5.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 34d | R +0.3 |
| Impact Research (D) | 700 LV | 50d | R +1.9 |
| Impact Research (D) | 900 LV | 52d | D +1.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Andrews | Graham |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 42.5 | 52.7 |
| Women | 53% | 49.8 | 45.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 47.8 | 47.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 45.2 | 50.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 45.3 | 49.8 |
| 65+ | 33% | 47.6 | 47.7 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 33.6 | 61.5 |
| Black | 24% | 79.5 | 15.9 |
| Latino | 3% | 53.6 | 41.6 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 62.3 | 31.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 32% | 28.5 | 66.7 |
| White women | 37% | 38.1 | 57.0 |
| Black men | 12% | 75.6 | 19.8 |
| Black women | 12% | 83.3 | 12.1 |
| Latino men | 2% | 53.3 | 41.8 |
| Latino women | 2% | 53.8 | 41.5 |
| All other races | 4% | 62.3 | 31.9 |