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21 DAYS OUT
KS SenMarshall R +0.2KS GovMasterson R +0.3IA SenTurek D +1.2AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NE SenOsborn I +1.9SC SenGraham R +2.5TX GovAbbott R +2.6GA GovBottoms D +3.0ME SenJackson D +3.1TX SenTalarico D +3.2OH GovActon D +3.4NV GovLombardo R +3.5FL SenMoody R +4.1WI GovCrowley D +4.1OH SenBrown D +4.4
2026 forecast

Maine Senate forecast

Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins. The model has Jackson ahead by 3.1 points, winning 74 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +3.1Polls D +2.0Updated October 13, 2026

County simulation

16 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +29.9: 1 simulationsD +27.6: 0 simulationsD +25.4: 0 simulationsD +23.1: 3 simulationsD +20.9: 8 simulationsD +18.6: 27 simulationsD +16.4: 57 simulationsD +14.1: 141 simulationsD +11.9: 418 simulationsD +9.6: 773 simulationsD +7.4: 1331 simulationsD +5.1: 1712 simulationsD +2.9: 1730 simulationsD +0.6: 1463 simulationsR +1.6: 1012 simulationsR +3.9: 667 simulationsR +6.1: 332 simulationsR +8.4: 185 simulationsR +10.6: 80 simulationsR +12.9: 28 simulationsR +15.1: 16 simulationsR +17.4: 8 simulationsR +19.6: 3 simulationsR +21.9: 1 simulationsR +24.1: 2 simulationsR +26.4: 0 simulationsR +28.6: 0 simulationsR +30.9: 0 simulationsR +33.1: 0 simulationsR +35.4: 0 simulationsR +37.6: 0 simulationsR +39.9: 1 simulationsR +42.1: 0 simulationsR +44.4: 0 simulationsR +46.6: 0 simulationsR +48.9: 0 simulationsR +51.1: 0 simulationsR +53.4: 0 simulationsR +55.6: 0 simulationsR +57.9: 1 simulationsD +31.0R +59.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.6 and R +3.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +2.0
Rasmussen Reports804 LV5dD +1.5
The Washington Post-Schar School800 LV8dD +3.3
Marist College1,505 RV9dD +1.3
CBS News/YouGov1,144 LV12dR +1.0
Trafalgar Group (R)1,091 LV12dD +1.5
Wedgewood Polls400 LV12dD +4.7
co/efficient (R)1,240 LV13dD +2.1
Maine People's Resource Center (D)684 LV14dD +0.7
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV20dD +0.8
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP982 LV21dD +2.6
New York Times/Siena University619 LV21dR +3.4
New York Times/Siena University619 LV21dR +3.4
University of New Hampshire1,312 LV22dD +4.3
University of New Hampshire1,312 LV22dD +4.3
Quantus Insights621 LV28dD +0.8
UMass Lowell/YouGov650 LV29dD +4.1
Rasmussen Reports (R)1,033 LV33dD +2.3
YouGov1,335 LV35dD +3.1
SSRS880 LV37dD +2.0
Abacus Data327 LV46dD +7.5
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)1,000 RV64dD +0.3
Hart Research (D)802 LV73dD +3.1
University of New Hampshire1,178 LV85dD +3.3
Z to A Research (D)988 LV97dR +2.4
Public Policy Polling (D)785 LV98dD +3.7

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareJacksonCollins
GenderMen45%44.753.3
Women55%55.342.7
Age18 to 2913%51.946.1
30 to 4420%49.448.6
45 to 6434%47.550.5
65+34%53.844.3
RaceWhite94%48.949.1
Latino2%68.429.7
Asian and other4%74.623.1
Race and genderWhite men41%42.555.6
White women52%54.144.0
All other races4%74.623.1