2026 forecast
Florida Attorney General forecast
José Javier Rodríguez vs James Uthmeier, with James Uthmeier running again. The model has Uthmeier ahead by 6.3 points, with a 87 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
67 counties · 12 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +6.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +4.3 |
| Blend of every leg | R +4.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +7.4 |
| With polls, 55% weight | R +6.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +0.8 and R +13.4.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Rodríguez | Uthmeier | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | LV | 2026-10-07 | 43 | 45 | R +2.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (conservative) | 854 LV | 2026-10-04 | 40 | 50 | R +10.0 |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 913 LV | 2026-09-17 | 42 | 43 | R +1.0 |