2026 forecast

Alabama Secretary Of State forecast

Wayne Rogers vs Caroleene Dobson, an open seat. The model has Dobson ahead by 23.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe RModel R +23.6Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

67 counties · 13 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	R +20.9
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	R +36.7
Blend of every leg	R +24.4
With incumbency and primary unity	R +24.4
With polls, none in the race	R +23.6

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +14.8 and R +32.5.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Rogers	Dobson	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.

Model margin

Dobson +23.6

Chance of winning

Wayne Rogers0%

Caroleene Dobson100%

Projected vote

Wayne Rogers36.7%

Caroleene Dobson60.3%

Others and write ins3.0%

2026 primaries

Dobson in the primary65.5%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202225.5%

Other Alabama statewide races

Agriculture commissionerR +30.1

Attorney generalR +24.0

AuditorR +32.8

Lieutenant governorR +27.9

Public Service Commission, Place 1R +30.7

Public Service Commission, Place 2R +30.7

Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 7Uncontested

Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 8R +30.7

TreasurerR +32.5

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Alabama's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.