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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Kansas Treasurer forecast

Juan Luengo vs Steven Johnson, with Steven Johnson running again. The model has Johnson ahead by 2.4 points, with a 64 percent chance of winning.

Lean RModel R +2.4Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

105 counties · 6 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorR +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +2.3
Blend of every legD +0.6
With incumbency and primary unityR +2.6
With polls, none in the raceR +2.4

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +6.4 and R +11.2.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedLuengoJohnsonMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.