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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

South Dakota Secretary Of State forecast

Terrence Davis vs Heather Baxter, an open seat. The model has Baxter ahead by 10.3 points, with a 91 percent chance of winning.

Likely RModel R +10.3Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

66 counties · 9 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorR +10.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026R +18.3
Blend of every legR +10.8
With incumbency and primary unityR +10.8
With polls, none in the raceR +10.3

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +0.2 and R +20.4.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedDavisBaxterMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.