2026 forecast
Vermont Attorney General forecast
Charity Clark vs Ed Kemon, with Charity Clark running again. The model has Clark ahead by 13.2 points, with a 97 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
14 counties · 8 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +9.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +43.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +10.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +13.5 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +13.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +22.2 and D +4.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Clark | Kemon | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||