2026 forecast
Massachusetts Secretary Of State forecast
William F. Galvin vs Anne Brensley, with William F. Galvin running again. The model has Galvin ahead by 38.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
14 counties · 14 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +31.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +48.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +38.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +40.9 |
| With polls, 21% weight | D +38.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +46.3 and D +31.0.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Galvin | Brensley | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 59 | 26 | D +33.0 |