2026 forecast
North Dakota Public Service Commission, Six-Year Term forecast
John Pederson vs Sheri Haugen-Hoffart, with Sheri Haugen-Hoffart running again. The model has Haugen-Hoffart ahead by 22.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
53 counties · 3 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket | R +18.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +26.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +20.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +23.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +22.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +13.7 and R +32.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Pederson | Haugen-Hoffart | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||