2026 forecast

Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2 forecast

Chari Kelly vs James Sullivan, with James Sullivan running again. The model has Sullivan ahead by 2.0 points, with a 64 percent chance of winning.

Toss upModel R +2.0Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

254 counties · 26 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	R +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +0.6
Blend of every leg	D +1.0
With incumbency and primary unity	R +2.0
With polls, none in the race	R +2.0

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.2 and R +9.2.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Kelly	Sullivan	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.

Model margin

Sullivan +2.0

Chance of winning

Chari Kelly36%

James Sullivan64%

Projected vote

Chari Kelly47.5%

James Sullivan49.5%

Others and write ins3.0%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202243.9%

201847.1%

201439.1%

Other Texas statewide races

Agriculture commissionerR +2.1

Attorney generalR +1.1

Comptroller of Public AccountsR +4.8

Commissioner of the General Land OfficeR +4.2

Lieutenant governorR +4.0

Railroad commissionerR +0.6

Chief Justice, Supreme CourtR +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3D +0.9

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4R +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9D +1.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8R +2.0

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Texas's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.