2026 forecast
Nebraska Secretary Of State forecast
Sarah Slattery vs Scott Petersen, an open seat. The model has Petersen ahead by 4.8 points, with a 79 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
93 counties · 3 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +1.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +28.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +8.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +4.9 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +4.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.8 and R +12.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Slattery | Petersen | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||