2026 forecast

Alabama Attorney General forecast

Jeff McLaughlin vs Katherine Robertson, an open seat. The model has Robertson ahead by 24.0 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe RModel R +24.0Polls R +18.6Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

67 counties · 13 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	R +20.9
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	R +36.7
Blend of every leg	R +24.4
With incumbency and primary unity	R +24.4
With polls, 3% weight	R +24.0

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +15.2 and R +32.7.

Polls of the race

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	McLaughlin	Robertson	Margin
yes. every kid. Foundation (school-choice advocacy group; pollster not named)	601 LV	2026-07-11	31	47	R +16.0

Model margin

Robertson +24.0

Chance of winning

Jeff McLaughlin0%

Katherine Robertson100%

Projected vote

Jeff McLaughlin37.5%

Katherine Robertson61.5%

Others and write ins1.0%

2026 primaries

Robertson in the primary55.1%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202225.5%

Other Alabama statewide races

Agriculture commissionerR +30.1

AuditorR +32.8

Lieutenant governorR +27.9

Public Service Commission, Place 1R +30.7

Public Service Commission, Place 2R +30.7

Secretary of stateR +23.6

Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 7Uncontested

Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 8R +30.7

TreasurerR +32.5

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Alabama's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.