2026 forecast
Alabama Lieutenant Governor forecast
Phillip Ensler vs John Wahl, an open seat. The model has Wahl ahead by 27.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
67 counties · 13 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +54.9 |
| Blend of every leg | R +28.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +28.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +27.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +19.1 and R +36.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ensler | Wahl | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||