2026 forecast

Iowa Senate forecast

Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson, an open seat. The model has Turek ahead by 1.2 points, winning 59 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Toss upModel D +1.2Polls D +0.1Updated October 13, 2026

99 counties

D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

10,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +7.9 and R +5.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
OnPoint average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +0.1
Emerson College/Nexstar Media	650 LV	7d	R +0.7
CNN/SSRS	801 LV	8d	R +2.9
Suffolk University	500 LV	9d	D +3.2
New York Times/Siena	606 LV	12d	R +1.4
Rasmussen Reports (R)	1,028 LV	13d	D +5.3
Quantus Insights	714 LV	14d	R +0.1
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company	1,008 LV	15d	D +1.4
Big Data Poll	650 RV	20d	D +4.2
InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	20d	D +1.7
Marist College	1,050 RV	23d	D +5.5
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,089 LV	25d	R +0.9
co/efficient (R)	831 LV	27d	R +0.6
Cygnal (R)	500 LV	32d	D +1.3
Rasmussen Reports (R)	1,031 LV	33d	D +6.2
YouGov	2,041 LV	35d	D +3.1
Emerson College	750 LV	42d	R +3.7
Global Strategy Group (D)	800 LV	43d	D +2.1
Wedgewood Polls	600 LV	45d	R +1.3
Abacus Data	323 LV	46d	D +7.4
Suffolk University	500 LV	51d	R +5.2
Emerson College	712 LV	70d	R +1.7
Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan	1,003 RV	108d	D +3.7
New York Times/Siena University	600 LV	108d	R +2.4
Cygnal (R)	600 LV	116d	R +0.7
Global Strategy Group (D)	1,000 LV	124d	D +0.1

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Turek	Hinson
GenderMen	46%	44.5	53.4
Women	54%	53.9	44.0
Age18 to 29	15%	55.0	42.9
30 to 44	22%	49.8	48.2
45 to 64	32%	46.3	51.7
65+	31%	50.3	47.6
RaceWhite	90%	46.6	51.3
Black	3%	89.1	9.0
Latino	3%	66.9	31.1
Asian and other	4%	77.4	20.3
Race and genderWhite men	41%	40.7	57.2
White women	49%	51.6	46.4
Black men	1%	87.0	11.2
Black women	2%	91.0	7.1
Latino men	2%	64.9	33.0
Latino women	2%	68.9	29.1
All other races	4%	77.4	20.3