2026 forecast
Alabama Agriculture Commissioner forecast
Ron Sparks vs Corey Hill, an open seat. The model has Hill ahead by 30.1 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
67 counties · 11 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +55.7 |
| Blend of every leg | R +30.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +30.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +30.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +21.2 and R +38.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Sparks | Hill | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||