2026 forecast
South Carolina Superintendent Of Education forecast
Sylvia Wright vs Ellen Weaver, with Ellen Weaver running again. The model has Weaver ahead by 18.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
46 counties · 12 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +2.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +45.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +16.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +19.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +18.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +9.7 and R +28.1.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Wright | Weaver | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||