2026 forecast
Georgia Public Service Commission, District 5 forecast
Shelia Edwards vs Josh Tolbert, an open seat. The model has Edwards ahead by 5.5 points, with a 83 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
159 counties ยท 33 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +5.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +5.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.8 |
| With polls, 5% weight | D +5.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +12.7 and R +1.8.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Edwards | Tolbert | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 815 LV | 2026-08-01 | 40 | 38 | D +2.0 |