2026 forecast
Michigan Secretary Of State forecast
Garlin Gilchrist vs Anthony Forlini, an open seat. The model has Gilchrist ahead by 10.4 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
83 counties · 17 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +10.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +15.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +15.1 |
| With polls, 47% weight | D +10.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.1 and D +3.9.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Gilchrist | Forlini | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications for Michigan TV stations incl. CBS Detroit | 682 LV | 2026-10-01 | 41 | 36 | D +5.0 |
| Cygnal (R) / Beacon Research (D) for Michigan Enjoyer | 600 LV | 2026-09-21 | 41 | 38 | D +3.0 |
| Glengariff Group for WDIV/The Detroit News | 600 LV | 2026-09-03 | 42 | 36 | D +6.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 672 LV | 2026-07-29 | 45 | 40 | D +5.0 |