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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Missouri Auditor forecast

Quentin Wilson vs Scott Fitzpatrick, with Scott Fitzpatrick running again. The model has Fitzpatrick ahead by 14.3 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.

Safe RModel R +14.3Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

115 counties · 5 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticketR +6.6
Down ballot history, moved to 2026R +11.6
Blend of every legR +8.7
With incumbency and primary unityR +14.9
With polls, none in the raceR +14.3

Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +5.1 and R +23.4.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedWilsonFitzpatrickMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.