2026 forecast
California State Controller forecast
Malia Cohen vs Herb Morgan, with Malia Cohen running again. The model has Cohen ahead by 25.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
58 counties · 31 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +23.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +31.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +25.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +28.2 |
| With polls, 15% weight | D +25.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +32.7 and D +18.0.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Cohen | Morgan | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wolfson | 828 LV | 2026-09-16 | 49.5 | 41.2 | D +8.3 |